“Doing the Math”
Concerning Lost-ness in York County
South Carolina
The following information is based on the figures provided by the Glen Mary study of religion in America that is published each decade immediately following the U.S. Census. Please notice that the numbers only reflect the 1990-2000 decade and will change dramatically when the next report comes out in 2011.
Population in 1990 = 131,497 (Official US Census)
Population in 2000 = 164,614 (Official US Census)
Population Gain/Loss from 1990 to 2000 = 33,117 = 25.18% Gain over 1990 Pop.
(estimated population in 2009 is 217,000)
*Affiliates in All Religions’ Congregations in 1990 = 96,770
Affiliates in All Religions’ Congregations in 2000 = 82,840
Numerical Affiliation Gains/Losses in Congregations = -13,930 = -14.39% Loss
Percent (%) of Affiliation Gain/Loss when Compared to Population Gain = -42.06% loss when compared to population gain from 1990 to 2000
Total Congregations in All Religions in 1990 = 239
Total Congregations in All Religions in 2000 = 224
Congregational Gain/Loss Percent in All Religions = -15 Cong. = -6.28% Loss within all religious congregations from 1990 to 2000
Average Numerical Congregational Gain/Loss per Year within decade = -1.5 a Year
Average Affiliations per Congregation in 2000 = 370 Avg. Affiliates per Congregation within All Religions in County (The context is negative numbers for congregations & affiliates.
Unclaimed Population in 2000 based upon “All Religions” comparison = 81,774 (not claimed by any religion)
Unclaimed Percent Total Population in 2000 by “All Religions” = 49.68%of total pop
Congregations Needed (All Religions) based on avg. members per congregation = 221 (But, this is in a negative growth context.)
Years it will take based upon growth in all religions from 1990-2000 = Cannot project negative growth data in Years
*Evangelical Members (Affiliation) in 2000 = 50,803 = 30.86% of 2000 Population
Unclaimed Population in 2000 based on “Evangelicals” Totals: 113,811 = 69.14% (unclaimed by any Evangelical Christian organization)
Congregations (Churches) Needed (Evangelical base only used) based on 100 Members per new Congregation (Church) = new congregations based on Evangelical data = 1,138 ( Evangelical Churches in the U.S. average about 100 members in size) (To reach the 113,811 people in York County that were unclaimed by any Evangelical church in the year 2000 would mean starting 1,138 new Evangelical churches based on the traditional North American model of church)
*Cost of Evangelical Congregations (Churches) Needed @ $2 Million per New Congregations (Churches) (Providing land, building and professional staff) = $2,276,000,000 for the churches based upon historical patterns of land, building & professional staff for each new church ( that is two billion and 276 million dollars!)
Congregations (Churches) Needed (Evangelical base used) Based on 40 Members per Lay-Led Ethnic or Neighborhood Indigenous Congregations (Churches) = 2,845 new indigenous lay-started and led congregations
Approximate Number of Lay “Men of Peace” or Lay Pastors Desiring On-Site (Non-Residential) Theological and Methodological Mentoring = 2,845 plus individuals
Cost of Evangelical lay led *Neighborhood Indigenous congregations/ small groups = 2 to 3 thousand dollars (start up costs, training and supervision) per congregation = a total cost of approximately $8,535,000 compared to the $2,276,000,000!
*Orality-Literacy Status = 50% (Levels 1 & 2) (Based upon 1990 NALDs study)
Illiterates (Cannot read and write) = 20%
Functional Illiterates 30% (Cannot read & write with understanding)
* all Religions Congregations refers to all religious organizations in York County, including all non Christian religions.
* Evangelical refers to Christians who believe the Bible is authoritative and organizes themselves within the context of the Great Commission.
* Neighborhood Indigenous congregations/small groups refers to a North American model for “house churches” that can be autonomous networks of congregations or networks connected to established traditional model churches.
* Cost of Evangelical church plants refers to the average cost of a Southern Baptist Church plant over the critical first 5 years. The cost factor is a very practical hindrance to our ability to plant enough new congregations to keep up with the growing lostness in North America.
* Orality refers to the growing illiteracy rate in North America and the impact it has on our outreach efforts. The Evangelical church in North America has traditionally been a “literate” movement while the evangelical movement in the rest of the world is an “oral” or “Bible Storying” movement. With York County experiencing a 50% illiteracy rate, our outreach methods must begin to embrace more orality.
Prepared by: Dr. Jim Slack of GRD/IMB/SBC and Mike O’Dell of YBA
For more information on “Doing the Math” contact Mike O’Dell at mikeo@yorkbaptists.org or 327-6144
